Humanity faces an extraordinary assortment of challenges: international conflicts, economic instability, environmental deterioration, technological disruption, and deepening divisions within and among societies. These problems are commonly discussed as though each were separate, requiring its own explanation and solution.
But what if some of our greatest difficulties in understanding and addressing these problems arise not simply from the problems themselves, but from the complex relationships among them? We should not overlook the consequences of complexity itself.
Economic competition influences international relations. Political rivalries complicate environmental cooperation. Technological developments alter economic and military power. These interacting forces can produce consequences that are difficult to anticipate and even harder to control.
There is another dimension that must not be overlooked: the human dimension. Our understanding is influenced by cultural beliefs, national identities, biases, prejudices, emotional attachments, biological dispositions, and limitations of knowledge and judgment. People making decisions about complex systems are themselves subject to these influences.
The result is a world in which problems cross national and disciplinary boundaries, while many institutions charged with addressing them remain organized around narrower interests, competing priorities, and established ways of thinking.
A conflict that will not stay in one category
Consider the conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. Nuclear proliferation is a serious and understandable security concern. But describing the conflict simply as a campaign to prevent an Iranian nuclear weapon leaves out much of what determines its course.
History matters. In 2015 Iran and six major powers reached an agreement restricting aspects of Iran’s nuclear program and providing for international monitoring. The United States withdrew from that agreement in 2018. The subsequent breakdown of restraints and confidence made later negotiations far more difficult.
How this series developed
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